Hungary

The Hungarian Climate Law of 2020[1] commits to achieving net zero emissions in Hungary by the year 2050. Accordingly, the National Clean Development Strategy (NCDS) was devised in 2021 which outlines the potential scenarios and steps necessary to achieve the desired target. It outlines two potential courses of action, an early action (EA) and late action (LA). Both would reach the carbon-neutrality target by 2050 (and the interim EU target of 55% compared to 1990 levels by 2030), but the EA scenario will contribute to more growth, and thus is considered the preferred alternative by the Ministry of Innovation and Technology.[3]

Greenhouse gas emissions by sector in Hungary, Gg of  equivalents, 1990-2017 and targets, Hungary’s Fourth Biennial Report, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

The Hungarian National Strategy largely relies on the carbon-removing potential of the LULUCF sector. In the period between 1985 to 2018, Hungarian forests removed  an average of 3.8 million tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere yearly, which is about 6% of Hungarian GHG emissions in 2018. Since climate change-related warming can lead to loss of Hungarian forests, and forest coverage could change (and degrade) significantly in the upcoming decades, these could become net emitters of CO₂ unless appropriate action is taken.

Prediction of Hungarian forest coverage, 2021-50 Challenges of forestry and climate change, Erdészeti lapok 152/6 (June, 2017)

The strategy outlines several policy actions to protect the capabilities of the LULUCF sector. It calls for raising forest coverage from the current 20% to 27% by 2050 and helping forests adapt  to a warmer and dryer climate. According to the report, 964 billion HUF (about EUR 2.5 billion) would be needed to enhance the carbon sink capabilities of the sector (approximately 4% of 24,709 billion HUF/EUR 64 billion in total investment required to achieve the goals of the NCDS). With the implementation of these measures, forests could remove 4.5 million tonnes of CO₂ annually, as opposed to emitting 140-145 thousand tonnes should no action be taken (-7% or 0.2% of Hungary’s 2018 emissions respectively).

Investment costs under early action scenario in Hungary by 2050 according to sectors, Billion HUF, National Clean Development Strategy

According to the strategy, CCS and CCU (carbon capture and utilisation) technologies will be essential in hard-to-decarbonise sectors (especially in energy production and industry), but modelled scenarios only expect such technologies and approaches to be economically viable after 2030, since in many cases cheaper abatement alternatives exist, with many CCUS technologies in the early phases of development. By 2050, CCS could capture 3 and 7 million tonnes in industry and in the energy sector respectively. Widespread use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is expected to form part of this, especially after 2040. The plan also states that more R&D will be needed in this area.

According to a report by WiseEuropa, plans for CDR are among the most detailed in Hungary’s national climate policy among the Visegrad countries (V4 – Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary and  Poland). On the other hand, the Alliance of Hungarian Conversationists criticised the plan as it relies too heavily on CCS, CCU and BECSS in the 2040s which brings great uncertainty as this set of technology is not yet ready for wide-scale application.

[1] 2020. évi XLIV. törvény a klímavédelemről

[3] Innovációs és Technológiai Minisztérium