In a Nutshell

The European Commission’s strategy on Industrial Carbon Management (ICMS) lays out what role industrial carbon management technologies, including certain carbon dioxide removal methods referred to as ‘industrial carbon removal’ (BECCS, DACCS and biogenic carbon), can play in decarbonising the EU’s economy. It also introduces measures needed to develop and scale up these technologies. As a Commission communication, the content of the ICMS is not legally binding but introduces an outline and a guide for future EU policy initiatives.

Given the current lack of a comprehensive policy framework around industrial carbon management, the ICMS is a crucial first step in creating the right conditions for the development and deployment of industrial CDR and CCS technologies. The ICMS is closely linked with the European Commission’s 2040 climate target communication, which sets out a 90% net greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target by 2040, as well as twin targets for emission reductions and carbon removal.

The ICMS contains separate sections covering which measures are needed to scale CCS, CCU, industrial CDR, and CO2 transport and storage infrastructure. The measures relevant to CDR include considerations on developing a separate carbon removal trading scheme, introducing Important Projects of Common European Interest (ICPEIs) for CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, and boosting research, innovation and early-of-a-kind demonstration for novel industrial technologies for carbon removal.

The strategy also provides a dedicated section on public awareness, which appears to signal that the Commission recognises the importance of involving and engaging stakeholders and the public in the scale-up of industrial carbon management technologies.

However, the strategy does not clearly distinguish between CDR, CCS, and CCU, and fails to set dedicated targets for each of these. It narrowly focuses on types of CDR considered ‘industrial CDR’, namely direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and biogenic carbon.

What's on the Horizon?

In the ICMS, the Commission foresees several actions, laid out over an indicative timeline.

While no clear timeline is provided for industrial CDR (iCDR), the Commission needs to assess by 2026 if and how CDR could be accounted for in the EU Emission Trading System (ETS), or a potential removal trading system. In parallel, it also raises the need to boost dedicated funding under the EU RD&I under Horizon Europe and the Innovation Fund.

For CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, the strategy mentions that, as of 2024, the Commission:

  • should initiate preparatory work in view of a proposal for a possible future CO2 transport regulatory package, as well as working towards proposing an EU-wide CO2 transport infrastructure planning mechanism;
  • will work with member states on exploring a possible Important Project of Common European Interest (IPCEI) for CO2 transport and storage infrastructure.

Carbon Gap unveiled its CDR Strategy for Europe in March 2024, and presented key recommendations that are intended to complement the actions foreseen in the ICM strategy to scale CDR.

Deep Dive

The origins of the ICM strategy

The EU Green Deal and the latest version of the EU Climate Law, in which the ambition of the Union’s climate targets for 2030 has been raised, both stress the importance of carbon dioxide removal and carbon capture and storage technologies in EU climate action. The Commission’s communication on Sustainable Carbon Cycles published in 2021 further underscored the importance of industrial carbon management. The communication included an aspirational target of 5MtCO2 of industrial carbon removal per year by 2030. To deliver on this target, it set out key actions to support industrial carbon management and CDR more broadly, foreseeing the need for a certification framework for carbon removal, and calling for the creation of an annually recurring CCUS Forum. Since its establishment in 2021, the CCUS Forum has informed the work on the ICMS, including through several reports from working groups focusing on CO2 infrastructure and standards, industrial partnership for CCUS, and public perception.

 

Scaling up industrial CDR

The ICM strategy acknowledges the key role CDR will play in reaching climate neutrality by indicating that it will be needed to compensate for approximately 400MtCO2e of residual emissions by 2050. This figure comprises both land-based and industrial CDR (iCDR). The ICM also states that around 280MtCO2 and 450MtCO2 would need to be captured by 2040 and 2050, respectively, without clearly specifying which share would be stored and used, and which share would be CDR.

The strategy identifies key policy gaps holding back the scaling up of iCDR, including a lack of incentives, the lack of recognition of iCDR in the current EU legislative framework and the high costs associated with various iCDR methods. The Commission presents three main actions to address these gaps:

  • Assess overall objectives for CDR in line with the 2040 targets and the goal of climate neutrality by 2050, and negative emissions thereafter.
  • Develop policy options and support mechanisms for industrial carbon removals, including if and how to account for them in the EU ETS.
  • In parallel, boost EU RD&I and early-of-a-kind demonstration for novel iCDR under Horizon Europe and the Innovation Fund.

 

Role of CCS and CCU

The ICMS lacks concrete targets for CCS and CCU beyond the 50MtCO2 yearly injection capacity target by 2030 set in the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA). Some projections are included, but these do not clearly show how much CO2 would be used for storage, and how much would come from CCS as distinct from CDR. Furthermore, these projections are not presented as actual targets for CO2 storage.

Regarding CCS, the ICM strategy presents an extensive package of policy actions it plans to undertake, including the development of a platform for demand assessment and aggregation for CO2 transport and storage services. The strategy also calls on member states to take several measures, such as the inclusion in their national energy and climate plans (NECPs) of an assessment of their CCS needs and identified actions to support the deployment of a CCS value chain.

Regarding CCU, the ICM mentions that over time, biogenic and atmospheric CO2 will be increasingly used for CCU. It also lays out broad policy actions, such as the creation of a knowledge-sharing platform for industrial CCUS projects.

 

CO2 infrastructure as a key enabler

The Commission highlights the need to develop non-discriminatory, open-access, cross-border CO2 transport and storage infrastructure. The strategy proposes a comprehensive plan, with the ambition to develop a single market for CO2 in Europe.

From 2024, the Commission will initiate preparatory work in view of a proposal for a possible future CO2 transport regulatory package. It will also work towards proposing an EU-wide CO2 transport infrastructure planning mechanism.

Finally, the possibility of creating an Important Project of Common European Interest around CO2 transport and storage infrastructure will be explored with member states throughout 2024.

 

Room for improvement of the Industrial Carbon Management strategy

The definition of industrial CDR should be open to all safe and effective high-durability CDR methods. Currently, the ICMS unnecessarily restricts iCDR to solely DACCS, BECCS and biogenic carbon, failing to consider other promising methods, such as enhanced rock weathering.

Clear and quantifiable targets for the role industrial carbon removal should play to reach the EU 2040 target are necessary for at least two reasons. Firstly, to ensure the EU reaches durable net zero by 2050, namely a state where the remaining hard-to-abate fossil emissions are only compensated by high-durability carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Secondly, to provide visibility and predictability to the industry, considering that CDR must be scaled considerably across Europe. Furthermore, the fluidity and ambiguity between CCS, CCU and CDR should be addressed across the board and in future policy texts, clearly distinguishing each different role and climate benefits.

Clear and targeted support measures for scaling up CDR should be introduced. The current measures outlined for iCDR are a good first step, but they are not enough. Deployment incentives are essential in the scaling up of iCDR, bridging the gap between R&D funding and a potential integration into EU compliance markets.

 

To address these points, the European Commission should produce a strategy solely dedicated to CDR.

Timeline

11 Oct 2021
15 December 2021
27-28 October 2022
30 November 2022
16 March 2023
27-28 November 2023
6 February 2024
11 Oct 2021

First CCUS Forum in Brussels

15 December 2021
27-28 October 2022
30 November 2022

Commission adoption of the CRCF proposal

16 March 2023

Commission adoption of the NZIA proposal

27-28 November 2023

Third CCUS Forum in Aalborg

6 February 2024

Commission adoption of the ICMS and 2040 climate target communications

Further reading

Carbon Gap’s comments on the ICMS public consultation

Carbon Gap’s response to the 2040 target and ICM communications

Official Document

Year

2024

Unofficial Title

ICMS

In a Nutshell

The Just Transition Mechanism is the European Union’s main tool to ensure that the transition to a climate-neutral economy happens in a fair and just way. Through its three pillars, it aims to mobilise an estimated EUR 55 billion over 2021-2027 to support the European regions, sectors and workers most affected by the transition.

The EU regions identified as most at risk or overburdened by the transition, and thus most in need of justice-oriented policies, are those whose economies rely heavily on fossil fuel extraction and production, particularly coal. Poland, Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Spain face the greatest potential job losses in this sector.

The policy establishes three financial mechanisms to work towards a Europe-wide just transition: the Just Transition Fund (JTF), a dedicated transition scheme under InvestEU, and a loan facility provided by the European Investment Bank. Respectively, they offer grants, mobilise private investments and leverage public finance. Whereas the eligibility criteria for the JTF promote the diversification and modernisation of economies and the reskilling of workers, the other mechanisms are broader in scope and include a wide range of sectors.

As a nascent sector set to grow in scale and importance in the coming decades, carbon dioxide removal falls under the scope of the Just Transition Mechanism. To function, the EU CDR industry will need a large workforce, making it a natural candidate for reskilling programmes across multiple sectors, including academic research, engineering and technical jobs.

What's on the Horizon?

By June 2025, the Commission will need to review the implementation of the Joint Transition Fund.

Each member state has a national share reserved under the Public Sector Loan Facility until 31 December 2025. There are regular deadlines to apply for grants under the facility, with the next one on 17 January 2024.

The territorial Just Transition plans cover the period up to 2030.

Deep Dive

The Just Transition Fund

The JTF is the first pillar of the Just Transition Mechanism. The fund primarily supports the economic diversification and reconversion of the most affected regions through grants. EUR 17.5 billion was attributed to the fund through a regulation, with EUR 7.5 billion coming from the Multiannual Financial Framework for the period 2021-2027 (MFF) and EUR 10 billion from the NextGenerationEU for the period 2021-2023.

To access allocated funds, member states must prepare territorial just transition plans covering territories “most negatively affected based on the economic and social impacts resulting from the transition”. Special consideration should be given to islands and outermost regions.

The InvestEU “Just Transition” scheme

The second pillar of the JTM provides budgetary guarantees to ‘implementing partners’ that the EU Commission will provide direct or indirect financing. It can support investments detailed in national territorial just transition plans spanning a wide range of projects, including energy and transport infrastructure decarbonisation, economic diversification and social infrastructure. This scheme is expected to mobilise EUR 10-15 billion, coming mostly from the private sector, with some support from InvestEU implementing partners such as the European Investment Bank.

The public sector loan facility with the European Investment Bank

The third pillar of the JTM and its accompanying regulation provides a mix of EUR 1.5 billion in grants from the EU budget and approximately EUR 10 billion of loans from the European Investment Bank. A further EUR 18-25 billion of public investments is expected to be mobilised. The loan facility mainly targets energy and transport infrastructure, district heating networks, energy efficiency measures and social infrastructure. Applications must be linked to the relevant territorial just transition plan to demonstrate how the project supports specific national ‘green transitions’. Each member state is reserved a part of the budget under the facility until 2025, after which any unused amount will be made available to projects across the entire EU.

While the two other pillars of the JTM provide rather broad requirements, the Just Transition Fund outlines a specific list of actions and sectors that can be supported. CDR in its broadest sense could directly or indirectly fall under multiple categories. For example, it could help funnel productive investments in SMEs and investments in the creation of new firms. On the research side, CDR can be a destination for investments in research and innovation activities. On the social side, it could accompany the upskilling and reskilling of workers and job seekers. Finally, on the infrastructure side, it could be applied to upgrade district heating networks, especially combined heat and power plants, to unlock investments in the deployment of climate technology and systems, and for investments in renewable energy.

Evaluating the Just Transition Mechanism

Being the EU’s flagship mechanism to ensure no one is left behind in the green transition, the JTM’s main lever consists of requiring the development of territorial just transition plans. These are intended to ensure a high level of ambition whilst allowing civil society and the affected publics to have visibility over the just transition plan. There is also a certain degree of technical assistance provided for local public authorities, mostly through the Just Transition Platform, a one-stop shop platform providing information on all aspects of the JTM.

However, the JTM has several potential drawbacks. Firstly, the JTM might inadvertently reward countries that have delayed climate action by providing funds to member states with carbon-intensive industries that would not have decarbonisation plans otherwise. Secondly, the initial budget of the JTF was set at about EUR 44 billion, whereas it has now been downsized to EUR 17.5 billion, which will inevitably mean that fewer projects will be supported. Thirdly, the vision of fairness set out in the JTM and the European Green Deal in general has been criticised as a short-term, dirigiste solution to systemic challenges. Only specific sectors and regions are included, whereas other meaningful activities involving other types of actors and regions are left out of the JTM. Finally, the JTM’s operationalisation of climate justice is focused on those who are adversely affected by the transition, rather than on those who are adversely affected by climate change at large.

Timeline

11 December 2019
14 January 2020
28 May 2020
29 June - 3 July 2020
9 March 2021
July 2021
August 2021
11 December 2019

European Green Deal communication and announcement of the Just Transition Mechanism

14 January 2020

Commission adopts the Just Transition Fund Proposal

28 May 2020

Commission adopts the Public Sector Loan Facility Proposal

29 June - 3 July 2020

Launch of the Just Transition Platform

9 March 2021

Adoption of the InvestEU Guidelines, including guidelines for the Just Transition Special Scheme

July 2021

Entry into force of the Just Transition Fund Regulation

August 2021

Entry into force of the Public Sector Loan Facility Regulation

Unofficial Title

Just Transition Mechanism

Year

2021

In a Nutshell

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is the EU’s landmark tool to prevent carbon leakage and support the EU’s increased climate ambitions. It works by putting a price on carbon emitted during the production of carbon-intensive goods entering the EU to incentivise cleaner industrial production in non-EU countries.  

Carbon leakage refers to the process of shifted production and/or emissions to other jurisdictions with less stringent emission constraints. It is one of the key obstacles for the EU to reach its climate commitments. The CBAM was designed to specifically address this risk. Carbon leakage can occur when a domestic carbon price negatively impacts the competitiveness of an entity operating in this domestic context. This increased cost might result in the entity shifting its production to another country with a lower carbon price to reduce production costs. For example, a steel producer might consider relocating its production outside of the EU to avoid paying for the carbon it emits. Another possible instance of carbon leakage occurs when non-domestic producers that are not subject to the price of carbon enjoy significant competitive advantages compared to domestic producers, resulting in a shift of production abroad.  

The sectors that will first be covered by the CBAM are energy-intensive industries, namely cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen. When fully phased in, the CBAM will capture approximately 50% of the emissions covered by the EU Emission Trading System (ETS). 

The CBAM is based on the purchase of certificates by importers, which represent the embedded emissions in the imported goods. The price of the certificates will be calculated based on the weekly average auction price of EU-ETS allowances, equivalent to Euro per tonne of CO2 emitted.  

The CBAM will in principle apply to the imports of goods from all non-EU countries. However, countries participating in the EU ETS and Switzerland are excluded from the mechanism.  

Even though carbon removal has not been taken into account by the CBAM yet, the system provides opportunities to create incentives for CDR. There could be several ways to include CDR in the context of CBAM, including using CDR to directly reduce embedded emissions or to compensate for embedded emissions.  

What's on the Horizon?

Transitional phase 1 October 2023 to end of 2025: Under the Commission’s proposal, importers will have to report emissions embedded in their goods subject to CBAM without paying a financial adjustment in a transitional phase, providing stakeholders with some time to prepare for the final system to be put in place. 

Implementing acts are expected to be drafted and released throughout the transitional phase until 2026, though no clear timeline has yet been established. These include implementing acts on the calculation of default values for embedded indirect emissions and authorised declarant conditions and registries. A delegated act on certificates sale and repurchase is to be expected as well. Clarifications on the methodology for counting embedded carbon emissions, with separate methodologies for different sectors and goods, are also to be expected.   

An ongoing public consultation is taking place in the United Kingdom on whether it should introduce an equivalent system to the EU CBAM or not.  

Deep Dive

While the CBAM does not include CDR explicitly yet, there are a strong rationale for including it and several different ways it could be included.  

 The CBAM is intended to mirror the conditions that European Economic Zone actors experience when they emit carbon and fall subject to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). Assuming the EU-ETS includes permanent CDR within its scope to enable participants to reduce net emissions in 2030 at the earliest, a case can be made to integrate removals in the CBAM to make the two mechanisms work under the same rules. This would require clear rules on MRV mechanisms, with removals limited to hard-to-abate sectors. The CBAM could integrate CDR within its scope first, as it gradually phases in starting 2026.   

CDR could be included either directly or indirectly within the CBAM: 

  1. By authorising importers to buy durable removals to compensate a share of the embedded emissions and reduce their CBAM obligations. A clear mention of this measure could be made in Article 7. This addition could be done in accordance with the forthcoming CRCF by clearly specifying that only permanent removals are allowed. 
  2. By recognising CDR as a way to reduce a product’s overall embedded emissions, therefore reducing the product’s net-direct emissions. For example, a steel-making factory in a non-European country could buy durable CDR credits in its country of operations to reduce the product’s emissions. 

The revenues generated by the CBAM will go to the general EU budget. Since the CBAM covers many hard-to-abate sectors that will likely continue generating GHG emissions in the long term, it could be argued that some of the revenues generated by the CBAM could be used to incentivise/support CDR development/deployment. A share of the revenues could be used to finance the Innovation Fund 

Including CDR within the CBAM does come with some risks, among them the risk of greenwashing and disincentivising decarbonisation along value chains. While the CBAM itself might not contain the tools needed to tackle these two risks, other EU legislations could help address these risks. Greenwashing will likely be prevented by the Green Claims Directive, whilst the EU-ETS incentivises European companies to reduce their emissions.  

Whether CDR could be used to circumvent the CBAM or not should be clearly defined, and if yes, clear eligibility criteria should be created and agreed upon. Effectively, only high-quality removals should qualify, and priority should be given to reducing embedded emissions in the first place. EU policymakers still need to discuss and agree on the methodologies related to embedded emissions accounting, which could provide some opportunities to promote a stringent and robust approach to CDR under the CBAM. For example, indirect emissions could be reduced or even negated if BECCS is allowed in the methodology. 

CBAM in perspective 

The CBAM is not only considered an essential tool to achieve the EU’s climate objectives but also serves to ensure the EU’s industrial competitiveness with the rest of the world. However, while it puts European production on a level-playing field with imported products, European exports are currently still at a disadvantage. How this issue is tackled remains to be seen, as carbon leakage could still occur if a company shifts its share of European production going to the rest of the world outside of the EU.  

Other geographies are also engaging with similar ideas. The United Kingdom is currently going through a public consultation as to whether it should introduce a CBAM. Interestingly, one of the questions asked pertains to whether carbon credits should be used to offset emissions. The United States is currently reviewing the “Clean Competition Act”, which would create a CBAM for the USA. California has already put in place a system similar to the CBAM regarding electricity imports in some situations, and Canada is considering adopting a border carbon adjustment mechanism. 

Timeline

15 July 2021
10 May 2023
16 May 2023
17 August 2023
1 October 2023
31 January 2024
2025-2026
1 January 2026
2035
15 July 2021

Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism adopted by the European Commission. 

10 May 2023

Adoption by the EU Parliament and the Council. 

16 May 2023

Publication in the Official Journal of the EU.  

17 August 2023

The EU Commission adopted detailed reporting rules for the CBAM’s transitional phase.

1 October 2023

CBAM entered into force in its transitional phase. Importers only need to report until 2026, after which they will be required to pay financial adjustments.

31 January 2024

First reporting period for traders ends. 

2025-2026

Report reviewing how the CBAM is working and whether to extend its scope to more products and services to be published. 

1 January 2026

The permanent CBAM system will gradually enter into force while the free ETS allowances for CBAM sectors will be gradually phased out.

2035

All free ETS allowances will be phased out, thus CBAM will apply to all emissions in the sectors covered. 

Status

Unofficial Title

CBAM

Year

2023

Official Document

Last Updated

24/07/2023

In a Nutshell

The National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) outline the EU member states’ 2021-2030 strategy to meet the EU 2030 energy and climate targets. The Regulation on the governance of the energy union and climate action (EU) 2018/1999, requires member states to regularly submit NECPs and update them. It also outlines how the European Commission should review the plans.

In their NECPs, member states outline their plans for delivering on 2030 targets across five dimensions: decarbonisation, energy efficiency, energy security, internal energy market and research, development and innovation (RD&I). Member states use a template when outlining their plans to facilitate transborder collaboration and efficiency gains. So far, the 2030 climate and energy targets aim for at least 55% greenhouse gas emissions reductions, 32% of the total energy production coming from renewable energy, and a 32.5% improvement in energy efficiency. The Fit-for-55 package called for more ambitious targets, some of which are still under review, including raising the share of renewable energy within the Renewable Energy Directive to 42.5% by 2030.

Out of the 26 draft updated NECPs that have been submitted by member states – noting that Austria’s draft was submitted but later withdrawn -, only seven submissions include some sort of target for removals. These are either legally enshrined, such as in Portugal, or indicative targets based on the modelling of residual emissions, such as in the Netherlands. Furthermore, only ten NECPs mention novel CDR methods, such as Direct Air Capture and Carbon Storage (DACCS) and biochar. These technologies are predominantly mentioned as part of countries’ RD&I needs.

Several countries have also signalled that their submitted drafts are incomplete and are expected to change substantially as part of the final updated NECPs.

What's on the Horizon?

As required by the  Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action, member states must have submitted an updated draft of their NECPs by 30 June 2023, and the final version by 30 June 2024.

The Regulation also requires that by 1 January 2029 and every ten years thereafter, member states will need to submit a new final NECP covering ten years, with draft NECPs due one year prior.

Deep Dive

Assessment of the drafts by the Commission

Most of the draft updated NECPs were submitted late. By 3 July 2023, only six countries had submitted their draft updated NECPs: Spain, Croatia, Slovenia, Finland, Denmark and Italy. On 18 December 2023, the European Commission published its general assessment of the 20 out of 27 drafts submitted thus far, as well as a detailed assessment of each draft plan. It found that the measures presented in the drafts would only result in a net 51% emissions reductions by 2030, falling short of the 55% net emissions reductions target. The measures foreseen in the submitted NECPs would also fail to deliver the 40% emissions reductions target in the sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation, resulting only in emissions reductions of 33.8%.

The assessment also showed that the LULUCF net removals target of 310MtCO2e set in the LULUCF Regulation would be missed by 40 to 50Mt with the current measures, showing a significant gap between the target and the actual measures in place to deliver on the target. The 8th Environment Action Programme Mid-Term Review further underscored the presence of such a gap, stressing that maintaining and enhancing the capacity of Europe’s natural sinks should be a top priority in the final updated NECPs, alongside increasing the sinks’ resilience to climate change.

 

Current versions versus draft updated versions

The current versions of the NECPs in force, which were submitted at the end of 2019, fail to consider the role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in reaching national and EU climate targets. None of the 27 plans include targets for CDR, nor do they take into consideration novel carbon removal methods. Even conventional CDR methods such as afforestation or soil carbon sequestration are insufficiently addressed in the majority of NECPs.

Compared to the current versions, the draft updated NECPs submitted by member states show improvements on several fronts when it comes to CDR. Over half of current NECPs discuss the role of CCS and CCU in achieving national 2030 climate targets; yet almost all new draft NECPs now consider these technologies. Yet, despite some overlaps, CCS, CCU and CDR vary in terms of their climate benefit and CDR must be distinguished as a separate suite of methods. Specific to CDR, more than half of member states included at least one measure that would be relevant specifically to its research, development and innovation. Moreover, more than a third of member states now include some sort of removal target, compared to zero in the current versions, and several other NECPs mention novel CDR methods. Finally, close to half of the NECPs include some considerations around the need to develop CO2 transport and storage infrastructure.

 

 

Rating of all draft updated NECPs

We have rated all draft NECPs based on a previous report from the Ecologic Institute.

Denmark has produced the strongest submission when it comes to CDR, including provisions such as:

  • It includes indicative targets for CCUS and bio-CCS for 2030;
  • It provides details about national deployment incentives for CDR (through its NECCS and CCUS funds);
  • It explores the role that several novel CDR methods could play, such as bio-CCS and biochar;
  • It gives a clear overview of potential CO2 storage capacities, as well as the projects currently being developed.

 

However, the Danish submission leaves room for improvement. The Danish draft lacks measures to increase net LULUCF removals, which is especially concerning since the LULUCF sector is currently a net emitter in Denmark. The NECP also lacks a clear RD&I plan to develop CDR technologies. By addressing these missing elements in its final NECP, Denmark would stand out as a champion of CDR in the EU.

Other countries are on the right path to producing a coherent NECP when it comes to CDR. For example, Sweden and Germany score well in some of the seven criteria. In general, deployment incentives and CDR targets are the least addressed criteria.

 

Why all types of CDR should be considered as part of the NECPs

As highlighted by the European Commission in the Sustainable Carbon Cycles communication, the EU should aim for a minimum annual capacity of 5MtCO2 of permanent removals by 2030. Following the publication of the European Commission 2040 Target and ICMS communications, it is clear that the EU will need to develop large permanent CDR capacities to reach its 2040 climate goals and a state of climate neutrality by 2050. Reaching these ambitious goals in time requires urgent action to develop and start to deploy permanent CDR already today.

 

Recommendations for the final updated NECPs

To align their updated NECP to the 2030 climate targets and the EU-wide objective of climate neutrality by 2050, member states should consider the following aspects in their final updated versions:

  1. National (binding) twin targets for emissions reductions and CDR, and separate CDR targets for LULUCF and permanent removals;
  2. A plan for restoring and maintaining LULUCF sinks;
  3. Dedicated research, development and innovation funding for CDR;
  4. The needs and the potential to transport and store CO2.

Timeline

24 December 2018
31 December 2018
June 2019
31 December 2019
17 September 2020
30 June 2023
18 December 2023
30 June 2024
1 January 2028
1 January 2029
31 December 2018

Deadline for member states to submit their draft NECPs for the period 2021-2030

June 2019

EU Commission communicated an overall assessment and country-specific recommendations

31 December 2019

Deadline for member states to submit their final NECPs

17 September 2020

EU Commission published a detailed EU-wide assessment of the final NECPs. Later on, it also published individual assessments.

30 June 2023

Deadline for member states to submit draft updated versions of their NECPs

18 December 2023

The EU Commission published its assessment of EU member states’ draft updated NECP

30 June 2024

Deadline for member states to submit final updated versions of the NECPs

1 January 2028

Deadline for member states to submit draft NECPs covering the period 2031-2040

1 January 2029

Deadline for member states to submit final NECPs covering the period 2031-2040

Status

Policy Type

Year

2018

Unofficial Title

NECPs

Last Updated

23/06/2023

In a Nutshell

The Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) is a legislative proposal from the European Commission from March 2023 that aims to provide a stable and simplified regulatory environment to support the scale-up of net zero technologies. The NZIA aims to reach a goal of at least 40% manufacturing capacity of strategic net zero technologies in the EU according to annual deployment needs.

The Act sets out enabling conditions, streamlined permitting processes, and one-stop shops for net zero technology manufacturing projects. It differentiates between ‘net zero technologies’ (at least TRL 8) and ‘innovative net zero technologies’ (lower TRL, and can benefit from regulatory sandboxes to foster innovation). It proposes a list of eight strategic net zero technologies that would benefit from even faster permitting process within what are defined as “net zero strategic projects”:

  • Solar photovoltaic and solar thermal technologies,
  • Onshore wind and offshore renewables,
  • Battery/storage,
  • Heat pumps and geothermal energy,
  • Electrolysers and fuel cells,
  • Sustainable biogas/biomethane technologies,
  • Carbon capture and storage (CCS),
  • Grid technologies.

The Act establishes an annual EU CO2 injection capacity goal of 50 million tonnes. This goal will be adjusted when the regulation is incorporated into the EEA Agreement to account for additional capacity in Norway and Iceland and is expected to grow post-2030; according to the Commission’s estimates, the EU could need to capture up to 550 million tonnes of CO2 annually by 2050 to meet the net zero objective, including for carbon removals.

In one of the world’s firsts, oil and gas producers are subject to an individual contribution to this target, making them directly responsible for building and operating the newly mandated CO2 injection capacity. The contributions will be calculated based on a “pro-rata” basis, accounting for their share of oil and gas production within the EU during 2020-2023.

The Act also aims to facilitate access to markets through public procurement, auctions, and support for private demand. It focuses on ensuring the availability of skilled workforce and foresees net zero industrial partnerships with third countries.

What's on the Horizon?

The Parliament plenary adopted the text on 25 April and the Council on 27 May. The final text now needs to be published in the Official Journal of the EU and will enter into force on the day of its publication.  

To provide dedicated funding support to scale up clean technologies, the Commission was set to propose a European Sovereignty Fund by Summer 2023 within the context of the multi-annual financial framework (MFF). On 20 June, the Commission proposed, instead, to establish a ‘Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform’ (STEP), to provide an immediately available tool to member states. A provisional agreement on the STEP was reached on 7 February.

By the end of 2028, the Commission must assess the balance between CO2 capture, transport and storage capacity. Member states may be able to ask for adjustments in their contributions in case of an imbalance. The Commission must also propose a potential CO2 injection capacity by 31 December 2028.

A market assessment for captured CO2 will be conducted after three years of entry into force, potentially leading to legislative proposals to address shortcomings, especially for hard-to-abate emissions.

Four years after the entry into force, the Commission also needs to assess the possibility of including other technologies in the list of net-zero technologies, opening a window of opportunity for CDR. The evaluation will take into account: (1) updates to the National Energy and Climate Plans, (2) the Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan and (3) the State of the Energy Union Report.

Deep Dive

As one pillar of a larger Green Deal Industrial Plan, the NZIA is meant to strengthen and support the EU’s capacity to reach its climate goals. It ensures Europe seizes the potential to be a world leader in the global net zero industry in the context of strong support for net zero technologies coming from different parts of the world, such as the United States’ IRA.

(Strategic) net zero technologies

The NZIA proposes key developments for net zero technologies. Two main aspects of the definition are particularly relevant: (1) the definition is not technology-neutral, it identifies key areas to be addressed, and further lists a family of eight strategic net-zero technologies, which benefit from even faster permitting, priority status, and in some circumstance of overriding public interest, and (2) net zero technologies must be at least Technology Readiness Level (TRL)  8. CDR is not explicitly listed as a strategic net zero technology, and the TRL 8 requirement would exclude most CDR methods. However, if based on TRL only, some could fall under the definition of ‘innovative net zero technologies’, e.g., some forms of direct air capture are considered TRL 7. This flaw of the proposal could be addressed by co-legislators by adding carbon removal in the definition of net zero technologies and in the related annex.

CO2 injection capacity target to incentivise CO2 storage infrastructure

The NZIA proposes a 50 million tonnes per year of CO2 injection capacity in the EU by 2030. The act rightly identifies the lack of storage capacity as one of the largest bottlenecks for CO2 capture investments. One of the key aspects of the act is the transparency of CO2 storage capacity, including the obligation for member states to make publicly available data on sites that can be permitted on their territory, as well as reporting on CO2 capture projects in progress, and their needs for injection and storage capacity. The NZIA clarifies that CO2 injection capacity will also be available to accommodate CDR, but provisions are not proposed to ensure the shared CO2 infrastructure can efficiently be used to accommodate both CCS and CDR methods. A comprehensive and coordinated approach to carbon management that considers both CCS and CDR is needed to ensure that limited CO2 storage capacity is used effectively to reach the EU’s climate neutrality targets. The target will need to be continuously reassessed to meet the storage needs in the EU, especially beyond 2030. Furthermore, separate provisions to ensure adequate transport infrastructure should be foreseen. The European Commission estimates that about 550 million tonnes of CO2 may need to be captured annually by 2050 to meet the net zero objective.

Oil and gas producers’ responsibility to develop the EU CO2 injection capacity has the potential to be a world-leading initiative

The NZIA Article 18 introduces an innovative obligation on oil and gas producers to take responsibility for building EU CO2 storage infrastructure subject to the EU’s injection capacity target. This obligation could introduce an element of producer responsibility for fossil fuel producers in a similar way as producers of packaging, car tires, and other products are required by law to take responsibility for the environmental footprint of end-of-life disposal. If confirmed, this provision would also allow the development of open carbon storage sources by mapping and hosting transparent, open data on carbon storage resources, much of which is held today by private companies. Critical details of this obligation, such as how different sources of CO2 for storage are prioritised or barred, which entities, beyond oil and gas producers, are required to build the CO2 infrastructure, and the procedures to determine their location remain open and need further attention.

Fresh funding is needed

The proposal establishes new initiatives, such as the “Net Zero Europe Platform”, that will discuss the financial needs of the net zero strategic projects and could be key in advising how the financing of these projects can be achieved. Beyond this, the NZIA is anchored in already existing funding mechanisms such as Innovation Fund, InvestEU, Horizon Europe, Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI), the Recovery and Resilience Facility, and Cohesion Policy programmes. Clarity on new and additional funding will be key, as bigger goals will require bigger means that can support the variety of CDR methods at different TRL stages.

Timeline

1 February 2023
16 March 2023
26 May 2023
13 June 2023
19 June 2023
27 June 2023
20 September 2023
25 October 2023
21 November 2023
7 December 2023
13 December 2023
22 January 2024
6 February 2024
22 February 2024
25 April 2024
27 May 2024
31 December 2028
1 February 2023

The Green Deal Industrial Plan Communication

16 March 2023
26 May 2023

Publication of Draft Report by MEP Christian Ehler

13 June 2023

Deadline for submission of amendments – ENVI Committee

19 June 2023

Deadline for submission of amendments – ITRE Committee

27 June 2023

Deadline to provide feedback to the Commission on the NZIA proposal

20 September 2023

ENVI Committee adopts draft opinion

25 October 2023

ITRE Committee vote

21 November 2023

EU Parliament plenary adopted the parliament’s report

7 December 2023

The Council adopted its general approach

13 December 2023

First trilogue on the file

22 January 2024

Second trilogue on the file

6 February 2024

Third trilogue on the file. The EU Parliament and the Council reached a provisional agreement.

22 February 2024

ITRE Committee adopted the provisional agreement

25 April 2024

The EU Parliament plenary adopted the provisional agreement

27 May 2024
31 December 2028

Deadline for the Commission to potentially propose a CO2 injection capacity target for 2040

Unofficial Title

NZIA

Year

2023

Official Document

Last Updated

24/04/2023

In a Nutshell

The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a market-based approach for setting a price for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It works on a ‘cap and trade’ basis whereby a ‘cap’ or limit is set on the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions allowed from specific sectors of the economy each year, with the aim of achieving emissions reductions over time. This cap is converted into tradable emission allowances, which are then allocated to market participants through free allocation or auctions. One allowance gives the holder the right to emit one tonne of CO2 (or its equivalent) during a specified period. Companies covered by the EU ETS must monitor and report their emissions each year and purchase or trade allowances as needed to cover their annual emissions.

Participants who are likely to emit more than their allocation have a choice between taking measures to reduce their emissions or buying additional allowances; either from the secondary market, for example companies who hold allowances they do not need, or from member state-held auctions. When participants reduce their emissions, they can either sell their allowances or keep them for the future.

The ETS is the EU’s main tool for addressing emissions reductions, covering the following sector, representing about 40% of the EU’s total CO2 emissions: power, heat generation, energy intensive industrial sectors, aviation, and, since the latest revision, the maritime sector. It is now in its fourth trading phase (2021-2030). In December 2022, the European Parliament and Council reached a political agreement on the reform of the ETS. The overall target of the revised ETS was increased to a 62% reduction in carbon emissions from the sectors covered by the scheme by 2030, up from 42.8% since its introduction in 2005.

Carbon removal is not included under the EU ETS, but the Commission is set to report, by 2026, on how negative emissions could be accounted for and covered by emissions trading.

The Innovation Fund, a key source of EU support for nascent carbon removal projects amongst other clean technologies, is funded by the auctioning of ETS allowances. At 75 euro/tCO2, the ETS is set to provide around EUR 38 billion from 2020 to 2030 to the Fund.

What's on the Horizon?

The provisional political agreement reached between the European Parliament and Council in late 2022 needs to be formally adopted before the Regulation can enter into force:

  • 18/04/2023: Formal adoption by the European Parliament
  • 25/04/2023: Formal adoption by the Council of the European Union
  • 16/05/2023: Publication in the Official Journal of the European Union
  • 05/06/2023: Entry into force

By 31 July 2026, the European Commission is required to submit a report to the Parliament and the Council on the possibility of integrating negative emissions technologies (NETs) into the EU ETS. This should explore how emissions removed from the atmosphere through methods such as direct air capture can be safely and permanently stored, and how these negative emissions can be accounted for and covered by emissions trading without compromising necessary progress in reducing emissions.

By 31 July 2026, the Commission will have to assess and report on the possibility of including the municipal waste incineration sector in the ETS with a view to including it from 2028.

Deep Dive

Update to the ETS

The ETS was revised as part of the Commission’s ‘Fit for 55’ package, which aims to introduce new or improve existing legislative tools for achieving the EU’s target of reducing net GHG emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. The proposed changes to the ETS include:

  • Increased ambition to reduce emissions by 62% in the sectors covered by the ETS by 2030  and reduction of the cap by 4.3% per year in 2024-2027, and by 4.4% in 2028-2030.
  • End of free allowances for sectors covered by the Carbon Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026-2034.
  • Phase-out of free emissions allowances for aviation (25% in 2024, 50% in 2025 and 100% from 2026).
  • Inclusion of maritime shipping in the ETS.
  • Creation of a separate ETS for the building and road transport sectors, applying to the distributors that supply fuels for combustion. A new Social Climate Fund will direct part of the revenue from the auctioning to support vulnerable households and micro-enterprises.
  • Increase in the Modernisation Fund and Innovation Fund.
  • Strengthening the market stability reserve (MSR), the mechanism to help prevent excessive carbon price fluctuations.

Support for CDR through the Innovation Fund

Although the EU ETS is designed to incentivise emissions reductions as opposed to carbon removals, money raised through auctions of emission allowances under the ETS are reinvested into the EU’s Innovation Fund, which provides a source of funding support for technology-based CDR methods among other low-carbon technologies.

For more information on the link between CDR and the Innovation Fund, see here.

Should carbon removal be integrated into the EU ETS?

The inclusion of carbon removal (with permanent storage of captured carbon) in the EU ETS is subject to a nascent and growing debate in the EU policy ecosystem, in anticipation of the announced Commission report. Integrating negative emissions into the ETS would allow participants to offset a portion of their emissions by purchasing carbon removal credits. This, in turn, could create a potential long-term market for CDR.

Including removals in the EU ETS could have a number of benefits. As the ETS allowance cap is steadily reduced over time, integrating negative emissions would create additional market liquidity and decarbonisation options for hard-to-abate sectors. It would therefore help to satisfy demand for removal credits or allowances from hard-to-decarbonise sectors like aviation and would allow for carbon removal credits to be easily integrated into existing market infrastructure and trading platforms.

Carbon removal project developers and investors would gain greater confidence that there will be sustainable long-term demand for carbon removal credits. It would also allow removal projects to benefit from the carbon price. However, the price differential between the cost of CDR and the EU ETS carbon price will be a key consideration. The EU ETS would only incentivise CDR solutions within a certain range of the ETS price. This could be sufficient for some approaches such as BECCS (cost at scale  USD 15 – 400/tCO2) and waste-to-energy with CCS, but additional incentives would be needed for direct air capture given its higher price point (cost at scale USD 100 – 300/tCO2) – although this is expected to change as technologies improve and costs of different methods decrease. Complementary incentive mechanisms such as Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfDs) could bridge the gap between the actual cost of certain CDR methods and the EU ETS carbon price to drive the investment needed. The Commission is considering CCfDs as part of the overall agreement on the revision of the ETS Directive.

However, it is imperative that the potential inclusion of carbon removal credits in the EU ETS does not undermine the incentive for emitters covered by the ETS to decarbonise, or the urgency with which they should do so. One option to address this risk would be to limit access or quantities of removals to specific sectors that are harder to decarbonise and more likely to have residual emissions.

Another important consideration is the impact that any inclusion of CDR in the EU ETS would have on the integrity of the market. Developing robust monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) standards would safeguard the integrity of the ETS. The introduction of these standards is underway under the EU’s CRCF legislation.

An alternative approach might be establishing a separate, regulated negative emissions market. This separate market could later be linked with the EU ETS after the differential between CDR and ETS prices has been reduced and CDR technologies have a demonstrated track record at scale.

The EU ETS & other markets

The EU ETS was the world’s first international emissions trading system when it was set up in 2005. It has since inspired the development of emissions trading in other countries and regions, including most recently the UK and China. The potential role of the UK ETS as a market for CDR was signalled in July 2023, when the UK Government stated its intention to include Greenhouse Gas Removals (GGRs) in the UK ETS, subject to further consultation, a robust MRV regime being in place and the management of wider impacts. In 2017, the EU and Switzerland signed an agreement to link their emissions trading systems. The agreement entered into force on 1 January 2020, and the link became operational in September 2020.

Timeline

27 October 2004
ETS Phase 1 (2005-2007)
ETS Phase 2 (2008-2012)
ETS Phase 3 (2013-2020)
ETS Phase 4 (2021-2030)
14 July 2021
18 December 2022
2026
27 October 2004

Entry into force of Directive 2004/101/EC establishing a scheme for GHG emission allowance trading

ETS Phase 1 (2005-2007)

The cap is set based on estimates. The majority of allowances are given for free, and ETS covers CO2 emissions from power generators and energy-intensive industries.

ETS Phase 2 (2008-2012)

The cap is lowered around 6.5% in comparison to 2005, based on actual emissions. Around 90% of the allocations are given for free, and auctions are held. N₂O emissions are included by certain countries. The aviation sector is included in 2012.

ETS Phase 3 (2013-2020)

National caps are traded with a EU-wide cap. Default auctioning method replaces the free allocation system, and the scope is expanded to include more sectors and gases.

ETS Phase 4 (2021-2030)

Current trading phase

14 July 2021

Proposal for a revision of the EU ETS released as a part of the Fit for 55 package

18 December 2022

Provisional agreement between co-legislators on the revision of the EU ETS

2026

Commission’s report on the inclusion of negative emissions in the ETS expected

Further reading

Status

Unofficial Title

EU ETS

Year

2022

Official Document

Last Updated

24/04/2023

In a Nutshell

The Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) is one of the three central pillars of EU climate policy, together with the LULUCF Regulation and the EU ETS. The ESR primarily governs greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from sectors currently not covered by the EU ETS, including transport, buildings, agriculture, and non-ETS industry and waste, which generate nearly 60% of total EU GHG emissions. It spans all EU Member States, as well as Iceland and Norway.

The original ESR, adopted in 2018, foresaw overall emissions reductions across all EU member states in the covered sectors by 30% in 2030 below 2005 levels. The 2021 proposed revision is part of the ‘Fit for 55′ package, which aims to reduce EU-wide net GHG emissions by 55% in 2030 below 1990 levels and to decrease GHG emissions in the sectors covered by ESR to 40% by 2030 below 2005 levels (compared with the existing target of a 29% emission reduction).

The Regulation establishes binding emissions reduction targets for member states, which differ from country to country, primarily depending on the countries’ GDP per capita (spanning from 10% to 50%). The new proposal aims to establish more ambitious national targets for 2023-2030. Together with the LULUCF Regulation and the ETS, the ESR allows for flexibilities in net emissions reductions among the three policies to achieve climate change mitigation goals more efficiently.

While the ESR is not primarily concerned with carbon removals, it allows countries to make use of excess carbon removals achieved in the LULUCF sector to reach their ESR targets. The EU-wide maximum for carbon removals, which may be used to reach the 55% emissions reduction goal, is limited to net 225 million tons of CO2e until 2030.

What's on the Horizon?

The provisional political agreement reached between the European Parliament and Council in December 2022 needs to be formally adopted before the Regulation can enter into force: 

Agreed changes compared to the Commission proposal include eliminating an initially proposed additional voluntary reserve of unused LULUCF removal credits that would have been allowed to count towards Member States’ 2030 ESR target.

Deep Dive

Together with the ETS and LULUCF, the ESR is one of the three central pieces of EU climate legislation, which steer efforts to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by 55% in 2030 below 1990 levels as outlined in the European Climate Law. All three have been revised to increase ambition and ratchet up the 2030 target through the ‘Fit for 55’ package and negative emissions will potentially be able to play a role in each of them.

A key aspect of the ESR is the flexibilities of countries to reach their targets more efficiently. These flexibilities are intended to decrease a country’s burden, and give the ESR some characteristics of a carbon market:

1.Temporal and international flexibilities:

  • Banking: If a country’s GHG emissions are lower than its annual allocation under the ESR, it may use part of its surplus in the following years and until 2030;
  • Borrowing: If a country’s GHG emissions are higher than its annual allocation under the ESR, it may borrow from the following year’s allocation (up to 7.5% of the annual allocations from 2021 to 2025 and up to 5% from 2026 to 2030);
  • Trading: Countries may buy or sell allocations to meet their annual targets (up to 10% of their annual allocations from 2021 to 2025 and 15% from 2026 to 2030).

2. Sectoral flexibilities:

  • ETS and ESR: Nine member states’ allowances (with national reduction targets above the EU average and their cost-efficient reduction potential) may make use of a limited percentage of ETS emissions to reach their ESR reduction targets;
  • LULUCF and ESR: Countries may use a constrained number of net carbon removals in the LULUCF sector to meet their emission reduction targets under the ETS.

Under the proposed amendment of the ESR, the total net carbon removals which may be considered for reaching ESR targets, may not exceed 225 Mt CO2e across all member states. Previously the maximum was 280 Mt CO2e. The quantity of net carbon removal was also determined and limited for each member state individually. To avoid emissions reduction deterrence, the new proposal also foresees additionally capping the use of carbon removals under the ESR in two time periods, the maximum allowance equally split between 2021-2025 and 2026-2030.

Timeline

30 May 2018
16 December 2018
14 July 2021
8 November 2022
17 May 2023
30 May 2018

Entry into force of the original Effort Sharing Regulation

16 December 2018

Commission Implementing Decision setting out annual emission allocations of the Member States for 2021- 2030

14 July 2021

Proposal to revise the Effort Sharing Regulation as part of the Fit for 55 package

8 November 2022

Provisional political agreement between co-legislators on the revised Effort Sharing Regulation

17 May 2023
Revised regulation enters into force

Status

Year

2021

Official Document

Last Updated

24/04/2023